"Economy Holding Up, Reports Find"
"Maybe the American economy is not going to keel over just yet, after all.
Government reports released Thursday showed surprising resilience in the broader economy, even as the financial system and the housing market continue to weaken. Retail sales rose 1.2 percent in November, and even housing-related areas like furniture and building materials were up.
Now I KNOW they are LIES!!!
How about the frikkin' NYT, huh?
Just takes the government handout as if it is God's honest gospel!
Pfffffffftttttt!!!
Wholesale prices surged, indicating strong demand and raising cautionary flags about inflation, and a weekly report found that new unemployment claims fell by 7,000, suggesting a healthy job market.
For much of the fall, investors and economists have been waiting for more definitive signs that the economy either is headed for a recession or will surely avoid one. A clear indication one way or the other would make it much easier for the Federal Reserve to conduct monetary policy by leaning against the prevailing winds.
But with opposing economic forces appearing to offset each other, the Fed is in a quandary. Home prices are falling, mortgage defaults are rising and lending is slowing down, but a falling dollar is promoting American exports, while increasing jobs and rising wages are allowing many Americans to keep shopping.
“We will muddle through,” predicted James T. Swanson, chief investment strategist for MFS Investment, a mutual fund company based in Boston. “There is not going to be an ‘all clear’ or a big collapse.”
Underscoring that uncertainty, Kenneth D. Lewis, the chief executive of Bank of America, told investors on Wednesday that the odds of a recession were “getting closer and closer to 50-50.” On Thursday, CNBC reported that Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chairman, had raised his prediction for a recession to 50 percent, from 30 percent.
For some economists who have been more upbeat recently, the retail sales data from the Commerce Department was seen as a vindication of their view that economic conditions were not as dire as the skeptics say. Sales were up in most parts of the economy, with the exception of the beleaguered auto sector.
Except the government sales data is a LIE!
"U.S. Holiday Sales Drop for Second Week, Research Group Says
"U.S. retail sales dropped for the second straight week as consumers postponed holiday gift purchases during what may be the worst holiday shopping season in five years."
I haven't been to the mall, and I'm not going either!
Not helping out this government and its fascist businesses at Christmas time, no way!
Part of the increase may be due to an earlier start to the holiday shopping season. Rising energy prices appear to explain about half the increase, but even excluding sales at gasoline stations, spending was still up a respectable 0.6 percent from October and 4.5 percent from the same month last year.
“The November retail sales data is welcome relief,” said Michael T. Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners, a hedge fund in Greenwich, Conn. “The best thing about this report is its breadth — every category was up strongly except autos.”
Market specialists who expect harder times say the recent data does not yet reflect the full effects of the housing slump and the credit crisis.
Home prices have fallen about 5 percent from their peak in the summer of 2006, and many economists estimate that prices across the nation will fall, on average, at least an additional 10 percent before they level out. Some foresee prices plunging as much as 30 percent.
An estimated 2.7 percent of the nation’s owner-occupied homes were for sale at the end of September, according to the Census Bureau. That is about one percentage point higher than the vacancy rate during the recession in the early 1990s.
“We are not remotely close” to the bottom of the housing market, said Barry L. Ritholtz, chief executive and director of equity research at Fusion IQ, “until we get this huge inventory worked out.”
Mr. Ritholtz, who writes on the popular blog The Big Picture, also noted that during the housing boom, rising real estate wealth helped support a lot of consumer spending. Americans were tapping nearly $250 billion worth of home equity every quarter in the form of second mortgages and refinancings. That represented nearly 10 percent of disposable income.
For the third quarter of this year, though, equity withdrawals fell to about $170 billion, or 6.6 percent of disposable income, according to data from the Federal Reserve.
Borrowing costs are also on the rise for businesses and consumers without perfect credit histories. Some are not able to borrow at all. Even home buyers with sterling credit records are being forced to pay higher interest rates for jumbo mortgages that have balances of more than $417,000 — the limit for loans that can be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The crosscurrents in the economy have put the Fed in a tough position. It has cut its benchmark overnight lending rate by a full percentage point since September to help restore the banking system, but its easing has also helped weaken the dollar and led to concern about inflation. On Wednesday, the Fed and other central banks said they would lend more than $90 billion in an effort to ease the flow of credit.
The dollar has fallen 3.3 percent against a basket of six major currencies, and some inflation indicators have ticked up since the Fed started cutting rates. The Labor Department said the producer price index rose 3.2 percent in November, up from 0.1 percent the month before, mostly because of a spike in energy prices. But even excluding energy and food, wholesale prices were up 0.4 percent.
“This is a testing time for the Fed, because central banks have to be forward-looking,” said Paul Sheard, global chief economist at Lehman Brothers, who expects inflation to moderate as the economy slows but does not tip over into a recession.
“We think it is going to take another couple of years for this to play through,” Mr. Sheard said. “The housing shock is a slow-moving shock. It’s not like a spike in energy prices or a geopolitical shock like 9/11.”
Of course, the richers all know it is bullshit.
The shit-shoveling is just for you, shit-chewing Amurkn!
"Investors Shrug Off Global Cash Injection"
How's that shit taste, Amurka?
