Thursday, December 6, 2007

Economic Distort

See if you can make sense of all these stories.

Orders Up

October factory orders climb

"Orders to US factories rose unexpectedly in October although much of the gain reflected higher energy prices.

The Commerce Department reported that orders advanced by 0.5 percent in October, far better than the flat reading that was expected. However, much of the strength came from a big jump in the cost of petroleum and other energy prices, which pumped up orders at oil refineries and chemical plants. The orders figures are not adjusted for changes in prices.

Meanwhile, a private sector report on labor market strength projected that business payrolls increased by 189,000 in November. That gain was well above the expectation for a modest gain of 50,000 jobs and caused economists to boost their forecasts for job growth in the government's employment report, which will be released tomorrow."

I don't think that helped you or me, and I think the government or study is lying.

Stock Market Stink

Stocks & Bonds: Shares Rally on Surprisingly Strong Jobs Data

"A promising employment report lifted stocks yesterday, with the main indexes erasing two days of declines on renewed optimism about the outlook for the economy.... the strong number took many in the market by surprise.

Joshua Shapiro, chief United States economist at the research firm MFR:

That came out of left field, huh?

Some economists were skeptical of the A.D.P. report, which showed that job losses in manufacturing and construction, both hit hard by the housing downturn, had slowed to a trickle. Payrolls at financial firms appeared to increase.

Mr. Shapiro of MFR, noting that sentiment surveys have suggested a bleaker employment outlook among consumers:

If you look at other evidence about the labor market, it points to weakening. There’s something funky in these numbers, but they are what they are.”

What weak labor market?

Bristol-Myers to Eliminate 4,800 Jobs

"Bristol-Myers Squibb said yesterday that it would cut approximately 10 percent of its work force of 43,000 employees, continuing a year of pharmaceutical industry layoffs as drug makers adapt to a more competitive environment.

Besides layoffs, the company said it would sell or close half its 27 manufacturing plants worldwide, farm out some manufacturing and winnow its portfolio of more than 500 products by about 60 percent. That will be accomplished both by selling mature products and eliminating product lines.

The chief executive of Bristol-Myers, James M. Cornelius, delivered the layoff news to investment analysts yesterday at a conference in Manhattan. He said that while it was difficult to cut employees, his company was late in doing so.

Mr. Cornelius, during a break in the conference:

I’ve counted: since 2000, there have been 100,000 job eliminations in what we think of as big pharma. We’re about the only company that has had the same head count.”

Industrywide, drugs with combined annual sales estimated at $60 billion will lose patent protection in the next five years. That reality is frequently cited for layoffs at drug companies, including Pfizer, the world’s biggest drug maker, which has announced job cuts of about 10,000 in the past year, or about 10 percent of its work force. Johnson & Johnson said this year that it would cut 4,800 position, or about 4 percent of its employees."

Oh, that weak labor market.

But thats all right, the Execs are doing just fine:

House Panel Finds Conflicts in Executive Pay Consulting

"As executive compensation has grown in size and complexity, pay consultants have become increasingly influential. And board compensation committees have rebutted criticism of rising pay by maintaining that the outlays were justified through the use of outside consultants."

We need the consultants because the packages are complex, which is why the costs are skyrocketing.

Nice gig, if you can get it!

What a bunch of looting globalist swine!

And not all of them are exactly cheery on this shit economy:

Pessimism Is Growing in Executive Suites

"The chiefs are getting worried.

Surveys of corporate chief executives and chief financial officers released yesterday showed sharp declines in optimism about the economy and business conditions, providing more evidence that the economy is slowing.

Just 9 percent of chief financial officers said they were more optimistic about the economy in December than they had been three months earlier, a record low.

John R. Graham, a finance professor at Duke University, which conducted the survey with CFO Magazine:

We’ve never seen anything like that. C.F.O. optimism is spiraling downward.”

The surveys were released a day after a more upbeat survey of 105 chief executives who are members of the Business Roundtable, a group of large American companies."

So what, business tells you one thing in private, and says something different to public?

Why does LIAR pop into my head?

So what are they saying publicly?

The Richers

Wary of Risk, Bankers Sold Shaky Mortgage Debt

Let's put the last paragraph first, and then run the story, 'kay?

"What is clear is that home loans were highly lucrative to Wall Street and its bankers. The average total compensation for managing directors in the mortgage divisions of investment banks was $2.52 million in 2006, compared with $1.75 million for managing directors in other areas, according to Johnson Associates, a compensation consulting firm. This year, mortgage officials will probably earn $1.01 million, while other managing directors are expected to earn $1.75 million.

Now the rest:

"Many of the home loans tied to these investments quickly defaulted, resulting in billions of dollars of losses for investors. At the same time, many of the companies that sold these securities, concerned about a looming meltdown in the housing market, protected themselves from losses.

One big bank that saw the trouble coming was Goldman Sachs... The New York attorney general, Andrew M. Cuomo, has subpoenaed major Wall Street banks, including Deutsche Bank, Merril Lynch and Morgan Stanley, seeking information about the packaging and selling of subprime mortgages. And the Securities and Exchange Commission is examining how Wall Street companies valued their own holdings of these complex investments.

In any case, the bankers argue, buyers of such securities — institutional investors like pension funds, banks and hedge funds — are sophisticated and understand the risks. Wall Street officials maintain that the system worked as it was supposed to.

As early as January 2006, Greg Lippmann, Deutsche Bank’s global head of trading for asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, and his team began advising hedge funds and other institutional investors to protect themselves from a coming decline in the housing market.

One hedge fund trader, who asked not to be identified because it could jeopardize his relationship with Wall Street banks:

He was really pounding the pavement.”

Mr. Lippmann’s trade ideas — documented in a January 2006 presentation obtained by The New York Times — were not always popular inside Deutsche Bank.

Goldman Sachs also moved early to insulate itself from potential losses. Almost a year ago, on Dec. 14, 2006, David A. Viniar, Goldman’s chief financial officer, called a “mortgage risk” meeting. The investment bank’s mortgage desk was losing money, and Mr. Viniar, with various officials, reviewed every position in the bank’s portfolio.

The bank decided to reduce its stockpile of mortgages and mortgage-related securities and to buy expensive insurance as protection against further losses, said a person briefed on the meeting who was not authorized to speak about the situation publicly.

Goldman, however, did not stop selling subprime mortgage securities. The bank, like other firms, retains a piece of the securities it sells. A Goldman spokesman said the firm was not betting against the mortgage securities it underwrote in 2007.

Like Goldman, Lehman Brothers also started to hedge its huge inventory of home loans in the second quarter of this year, concerned about poor underwriting standards. But Lehman also continued to sell mortgage securities packed with shaky loans, underwriting $16.5 billion of new securities in the first nine months of 2007. About 15 percent of the loans backing these securities have defaulted.

At the center of the boom in mortgages for borrowers with weak credit was Wall Street’s once-lucrative partnership with subprime lenders. This relationship was a driving force behind the soaring home prices and the spread of exotic loans that are now defaulting in growing numbers. By buying and packaging mortgages, Wall Street enabled the lenders to extend credit even as the dangers grew in the housing market.

But other Wall Street banks, pushing to catch these market leaders, reached out to subprime lenders. Morgan Stanley, which expanded its subprime underwriting business by 25 percent from 2004 to 2006, cultivated a relationship with New Century Financial, one of the largest subprime lenders. The firm agreed to pay above-market prices for loans in return for a steady supply of mortgages, according to a former New Century executive.

The executive, who asked not to be identified because he still works with Wall Street banks:

Morgan would be aggressive and say, ‘We want to lock you in for $2 billion a month.'”

Loans made by New Century, which filed for bankruptcy protection in March, have some of the highest default rates in the industry — almost twice those of competitors like Wells Fargo and Ameriquest, according to data from Moody’s Investors Service."

So Wall Street and the banks fucked us on the mortgages, and they all got rich!

Can it get worse? Yup!

Lenders Agree to Freeze Rates on Some Loans

"The plan... would allow distressed borrowers who are current on their payments to keep their low introductory rates and escape an increase of 30 percent or more in their monthly payments when the rates expire.

It would exclude those who are delinquent on their payments — about 22 percent of all subprime borrowers, according to First American LoanPerformance, an industry research firm.

You mean, the people that really need the help!

Mortgage companies could also exclude borrowers who they conclude are making enough money to afford higher monthly payments. Barclays Capital — extrapolating from a similar program recently unveiled in California — estimates that only about 12 percent of all subprime borrowers, or 240,000 homeowners, would get relief.

Eric Halperin, Washington director of the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonprofit group that has studied the subprime problem:

From what I’ve heard, I don’t see anything that leads me to believe we will see an increase in loan modifications.”

Sink, Amurkns! Sink and lose your homes!

This government has TRILLIONS for WARS, but NOTHING for US!!

The plan is being announced as fallout from the mortgage crisis is seeping into the political sphere. But there was no sign on Wednesday that Mr. Bush’s plan would contain new commitments by lenders to help people refinance.

Absent any new approaches, borrowers would still be largely on their own to find better deals. Republican presidential candidates have seemed reluctant to propose government rescue plans, seeing them as a bailout. But they are feeling the heat nonetheless.

Adding to the political pressure, many of the states that are hardest hit by mortgage defaults and falling home prices are important election swing states. They include Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The first two voting states, Iowa and New Hampshire, have not been particularly hard hit by the housing crisis, but two of the states with early nominating contests — Florida and Nevada — have among the worst problems in the country.

Howard Glaser, a mortgage industry consultant who worked in the Clinton administration and is an adviser to Mrs. Clinton’s campaign:

Even though foreign policy has been dominating the election for the past year, economics will pay a bigger role next year. Not only will the specific mortgage and housing problems intensify, the ripple effects on the economy will also magnify.”

Of course, I'd expect Hitlery's campaign to say that!

Yup, as long as all the WAR CANDIDATES don't have to TALK ABOUT WAR, they are happy!

That is THE ISSUE in 2008!

Is America going to be a WARFARE STATE of FASCISM or a BASTION of FREEDOM?

Because THAT is the ROOT of the ECONOMIC PROBLEMS!

MAINTAINING an EMPIRE and BANKRUPTING OURSELVES in the process!