Well, not for the "haves" and "have mores."
"Unexpected Loss of Jobs Raises Risk of Recession" by DAVID LEONHARDT and JEREMY W. PETERS
The job market took a serious and unexpected turn for the worse last month, raising the risk of a recession and putting added pressure on the Federal Reserve to move more aggressively to keep the ailing housing industry from infecting the rest of the economy.
The Labor Department reported yesterday that 4,000 jobs were lost from July to August, and the deepest cuts were in industries that are connected to the housing market, like construction and manufacturing. It was the first employment decline since 2003.
The unexpected weakness in employment changed the terms of the debate over the health of the economy. Before the report was released, most economists were predicting that the economy had added about 100,000 jobs in August and that growth had slowed but continued.
[Yeah, it is ALL GUESSWORK for the financial "experts."
Either that, or they are deliberately screwing the pooch!]
But now, the odds of a recession in the next year have risen, to 25 to 50 percent, economists interviewed yesterday said. A recession is typically defined as an extended period in which the economy shrinks, leading to a rise in unemployment and a drop in consumer spending and business investment.
[Gee, one report comes out and they are revising and revisiting!
But when the fundamentals are TOTAL SHIT, ah, that don't mean nuthin, dumbfuck stinkfuck Amurkns!]
Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at Global Insight, an economic research firm in Lexington, Mass.:
“People need to start thinking about the housing market not just as some ring-fence problem which is off on its own. They need to start worrying about the health of the broader economy.”
Stocks fell broadly and sharply, as investors digested the idea that the economy had been weakening significantly even before the mortgage crisis hit financial markets last month.
The Dow Jones industrial average dropped almost 250 points. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.6 percent in August, but economists said that was at least in part a fluke of the survey as more people stopped looking for work and were therefore not counted by the government as unemployed.
[FUCKING FUDGING FIGURES again! It's called LYING!!!]
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com: “If the economy is not headed toward recession, it is very close to one.”
[Bush will need another war then!]
The Bush administration tried to defuse concerns that the weak jobs numbers hinted at a wider economic slowdown. In an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said the report was “not totally surprising.”
[Except it was, Hank!!!
The "experts" expected +100k, not -4g]
Paulson: “There will be news that is not always good news, but I feel quite strongly that we have a resilient economy.”
[Easy for you to say! You worried about your home(s), Hank?!
Aaa-yup!]
For months, Fed officials and Wall Street forecasters have been predicting that the housing slump would slow the economy and that other factors, like corporate earnings, growth in other countries and strong wage advances, would keep the slowdown from being severe.
Mickey D. Levy, chief economist at Bank of America: “The financial turmoil and extended problems in housing put the risks for the economy clearly to the downside, no question, but there are also factors that suggest a longer period of slower growth, but not recession.”
One of the most worrisome signs in the jobs report released yesterday was the government’s revision to its employment data for June and July. The new numbers show just under 70,000 jobs being created in each of the two months. Initial estimates had been an average of almost 110,000 a month.
[Yeah, the government DOES THIS ALL THE TIME!!!
Says it's great, then months later, when you have forgotten, comes back and says it wasn't as good as they said.
FUCKING LIARS!!!!!!!!!!!]
The sharp slowdown this year suggests that some employers have already begun to see a downturn in their business and that others think one is on the way. With house prices falling in most of the country and oil prices having risen, consumer spending has slowed modestly in recent months.
State and local government agencies, many of them dealing with budget shortfalls connected to the housing slump, have also cut an average of 27,000 jobs a month over the last three months. But economists said the declines in government employment, especially in schools, may have reflected seasonal quirks that made the job market look worse last month than it was.
[You believe 'em? After they already lied?]
Hospitals, doctors’ offices, restaurants and retail stores added jobs in August. But the bright spots were few.
The surveys that made up the Labor Department report measured employment from Aug. 12 to Aug. 18, when the credit squeeze and subsequent stock market turmoil were under way but not yet fully felt. Since then, some large lenders like Lehman Brothers have continued to lay off workers.
Richard Berner, chief United States economist at Morgan Stanley:
“There probably was not that much influence in the data from the credit shock. So I think more weakness in the economy is likely. The economy is clearly losing momentum.”
Although the unemployment rate held steady at 4.6 percent, the percentage of adults with jobs fell to 62.8, from 63 percent in July and a peak of 63.4 percent in December. The number of people who were neither working nor looking for work, and therefore were not classified as employed or unemployed, rose by almost 600,000 in August.
Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo: “That’s a sign of economic weakness. Perhaps people just gave up trying to find jobs.”
The number of people with part-time jobs who said they would prefer to work full time has also been rising in recent months. In August, the Labor Department classified 4.5 million workers as “part time for economic reasons,” up from 4.3 million in July.
Wage growth, which often lags behind job growth, continued at roughly its recent pace. Average hourly earnings for rank-and-file workers, who make up about four-fifths of the work force, have increased 3.9 percent over the last year, to $17.50. Inflation has been running at about 2.5 percent a year.
[Yeah, it's still ALL GRAVY for you working stiffs!
Something is WRONG with the NUMBERS -- AGAIN!!!!!]
The reversal in employment was far different from the gain of roughly 100,000 jobs that Wall Street had been expecting, raising worries that corporate profits and wage gains could weaken as the market upheaval moves beyond the housing and financial sectors.
["Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said the report was “not totally surprising.”
I really wouldn't worry to much about that, either (read on)]
Jared Bernstein, an economist with the liberal Economic Policy Institute: “The big question on all of our minds is whether the financial market contagion would reach the labor market. And it appears it has with a vengeance.”
Don't worry, it's the Fed to the rescue!!!!
"Bad News Puts Political Glare Onto Economy" by EDMUND L. ANDREWS
WASHINGTON, Sept. 7 — For the first time in four years, economic concerns are rivaling the war in Iraq as a top issue on the political agenda, now that the malaise in housing and credit markets appears to be infecting the wider economy.
[What, Amurkn public and gummint can't WALK and CHEW GUM at same time?
WTF is this crap writing?
ALL CONCERNS, shitter, otherwise I wouldn't be doing this!]
The Bush administration, on the defensive, rushed out with a message of calm reassurance, as a phalanx of top officials insisted that the economy remained poised for growth despite a government report that seemed to show that the broader economy is suffering from the mortgage meltdown.
[Are you not sick of their fucking fetid diarrhea dribble of lies, folks?!
Seriously, on EVERY FUCKING ISSUE!!!!???]
Edward P. Lazear, chairman of President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers: “We’re still confident that we’re going to see high growth for next year.”
Carlos M. Gutierrez, secretary of commerce, warned that the prospect of tax increases would merely increase economic uncertainty.
[Sick of the LIARS, yet, reader? And from WHERE did that come from?
No one talking about that, not with Der Fuhrer wielding a veto pen!]
The most important participant in the drama — the Federal Reserve — remained silent on Friday and will probably continue to say nothing. Fed officials still have lingering worries about the risk of rising inflation, and they do not want the central bank to be seen as rescuing investors and lenders from bad bets on mortgage-backed securities.
[No, but they will bail out their rich buddies whenever they need it!
That's why it's a SHIT ECONOMY!!!!!
Because, YOU are being SHIT ON, Amuka!!!!! Better get your umbrella!
{_ :)]
Typically, the Fed raises interest rates to ward off inflation when the economy is growing fast and in danger of overheating, and lowers rates when the economy is slackening.
[Yup, back-and-forth, like a GOOD FUCKING!!!!!]
Fed officials and politicians alike know that decisions about monetary policy right now are likely to affect the broader economy about the time of the presidential elections in November 2008, because changes in interest rates usually take effect after a lag of 12 to 18 months. But the political repercussions could be greater than in many years.
[Oh, so not only is our election system a piece of shit, its floating in the toilet with the business institutions!!
So now the ECONOMIC decisions are going to be STRICTLY POLITICAL!!!
Just great!!
Is there nothing left in AmeriKa that isn't shit?
Aaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh!!!!]
Even as Wall Street analysts ratchet up their worries about a recession, Fed officials are far from convinced that a true downturn is likely. At the same time, many officials still have lingering worries about higher inflation.
[Yeah, they are JUST GUESSING, anyway! Usually WRONG, too!]
Fed officials were almost certainly taken aback by the drop in jobs last month. Wall Street forecasters had predicted an increase of about 100,000 jobs, though many had trimmed back their forecasts in recent days.
[See?]
Instead, the Labor Department estimated that the nation actually lost 4,000 jobs in August, and it reduced its estimate of the jobs created in June and July. Much of the recent decline in job creation came in construction and the downturn in housing, which had already been expected. And some of the decline stemmed from a decline in government jobs, which are not tied to the economic cycle.
[Did you know that it is a SHITCYCLE, reader?
That's right, if the economy were a bike, it would be MADE of SHIT!!
That way your literally PEDDLING SHIT!!!!!!
Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!!!]
And don't worry about the sheriff coming to the house!
The rich are gonna do just fine, so BUCK UP (no pun intended), Amurkn!!
"Stocks Tumble as Job Report Leads Investors to Shift to Bonds" by VIKAS BAJAJ
Shares fell sharply yesterday and investors sought safety in government debt after a Labor Department report showed an abrupt drop in employment in August and raised fears of a recession.
[Is government debt safe when its a bankrupt government?
Ever hear of DEFAULTS?!]
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closed down 1.7 percent, or 25 points, to 1,453.55, and the Dow Jones industrial average was down 249.97 points, or 1.9 percent, to 13,113.38. The Nasdaq composite index was down about 1.9 percent. Companies reduced their payrolls by 4,000 jobs in August, a sudden turnaround from the net increase of 68,000 jobs in July.
The government also revised down employment gains in June and July, suggesting that the economy may not have been as strong earlier this year as previously thought. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.6 percent, mainly as a result of a drop in the number of people looking for work.
[No jobs, no lookey!
But we need illegal immigrants, etc, 'cause there are jobs Americans won't do!
QUIT LYING TO US!!!!]
Tobias Levkovich, chief equity strategist at Citigroup: “This number was a surprise, not a pleasant one. Nobody predicted this or the revisions for the prior couple of months. This was not a good number, no ifs and buts about it.”
In a classic move away from risk, investors rushed into Treasuries yesterday. For market specialists, the employment report, which showed big losses in manufacturing and construction jobs, virtually guaranteed a cut in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, now at 5.25 percent, at the next meeting of policy makers on Sept. 18.
The dollar fell against most major world currencies on anticipation of a rate cut and weakening economic conditions in the United States.
Many investors were looking to the jobs report, the most significant economic data released since financial markets began to tumble in early August, to provide an impetus for a cut.
A lackluster jobs report would have spurred a cut while also offering some assurance that the overall economy was still growing. But the loss of jobs raised some concerns among investors that corporate profits and wage income will weaken as the market turmoil expands beyond the financial and housing sectors.
[Oh, heavens!]
Make the bed, you lie in it!
Policy makers have clearly noted that they did not yet see broader problems in the economy as a result of the turmoil in the housing and credit markets. Over time, lower interest rates should ease borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, but in the nearer term, market specialists agree that a rate cut will not provide much of a lift to the economy.
People who are having a tough time refinancing a mortgage or business executives who cannot sell bonds may remain locked out of the debt markets.
[So the "cures" are accomplishing NOTHING!
These guys are just presiding over the SLOW DESTRUCTION of the economy!
Letting the air seep out the balloon, as it were!]
For investors, the primary concern going forward will be how much consumers will cut back. Until now, they have continued to spend in spite of the trouble some are having with rising mortgage rates and falling home prices. But if the job market weakens significantly, that is likely to change.
[No! The lying looting banks will just give them MORE CREDIT!
At a HIGHER INTEREST RATE, of course!]
Douglas M. Peta, chief market strategist at J.W. Seligman & Company, an investment firm in New York: “If people have jobs, they pay their bills. The question is: Will weakness in employment lead to weakness in spending?”
[So BILLS won't be getting paid!
Ooooh, that IS SERIOUS!
Maybe if we all didn't pay the bills, the fucking corporations would get the point!]
Spending by consumers, of course, drives corporate profits, which so far this year have defied expectations of a major slowdown. If other reports confirm the weak reading in yesterday’s employment report, analysts are likely to reduce their expectations for profits, and stocks could suffer as a result.
[But the corporations are DOING JUST FINE, thank you!
That's why it is a SHIT ECONOMY!!
It is only working for the super-elite; the rest of us are swimming in the toilet bowl!]
Wall Street expects that earnings will increase at an 11 percent to 12 percent pace in the fourth quarter, notes Robert C. Doll, vice chairman at BlackRock, the asset management company. He expects profits to grow.
[HOLY CRAP! That ain't bad! That ain't bad at all, huh?
Well, think of that as you are getting tossed from your houses, readers!
It will give you a warm feeling in the chest, I'm sure.
Doesn't the rich man getting richer in the warmth of his hearth and homes make you HAPPY?!
Especially since he will swoop in on your piece of shit property at a cutthroat rate, then MAKE MORE $$$$$!
It's called the ECONOMIC SHIT FUCK!!!]
The next few weeks will be important, because September is the busiest month for investor conferences held by public companies. So far, the tenor of such meetings has been reasonably positive, especially among technology and energy companies, Mr. Doll said, noting that it is considerably dimmer at financial services firms:
“Generally, what we are hearing is reasonably good news."
[And that is all we ever hear!!]
September is also a month in which the markets have generally not fared well.
[And with all the PUT OPTIONS out there -- like before 9/11/01 -- should REALLY MAKE PEOPLE NERVOUS!!]
Optimists believe exports and growth in technology, health care and energy will offset the impact of the credit markets to keep the economy and corporate profits growing.
Mr. Levkovich of Citigroup, noted stocks on Wall Street may move on news closer to home:
“Certainly anything with a housing-related component has some severe job issues. But the outlook is much better for metals and mining and energy, industrials, education and health care — there are a lot of people employed in those industries. Wall Street has a tendency to do a little navel gazing. It’s no secret that there will be some head count reduction around Wall Street.”
[Well, a few less jobs than last month, anyway!
Just NOTHING to SEE here, right, puke?]
At least you still got your job, right, reader? Right?
Maybe not:
"Countrywide Plans to Cut Staff Deeply" by ERIC DASH
Countrywide Financial, the nation’s largest mortgage lender, said late yesterday that it would eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs, which would be the biggest round of layoffs in the troubled housing industry.
Countrywide, based in Calabasas, Calif., said 10,000 to 12,000 jobs, or as many as 20 percent of its 60,000 workers, could be eliminated over the next three months as it contends with a severe drop in new home loans, tighter lending conditions and a rise of borrower defaults and delinquencies.
Most of the layoffs will be of workers who approve and underwrite mortgages. Others will be in back-office operations. The company’s banking, insurance and servicing divisions will be unaffected.
[I once had a good job with a mortgage company, but now it's gone!
But the RICHERS won't be hurting much!]
Analysts said, however, that more job cuts are possible.
Countrywide’s announcement came after the close of the stock market, which dropped 1.9 percent on news of a government report that the economy had shed 4,000 jobs in August, which raised fears of a recession. The deepest cuts, the report suggested, were borne by industries with strong ties to housing, including construction and manufacturing. Those figures do not include projected layoffs, like announcements made by Countrywide and other lenders.
Yesterday, IndyMac Bancorp, the second-biggest home lender, said it would be eliminating about 1,000 jobs, or 10 percent of its work force, over the next several months. Two other lenders, the National City Corporation and Lehman Brothers, also announced layoffs this week, bringing the weekly total to more than 15,000 job cuts.
[WOW! A lot of friends out there!]
The latest cuts are on top of nearly 31,000 layoffs reported by financial services companies in August, according to a rough analysis of news reports tracked by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the recruiting firm in Chicago. About 86 percent of those jobs came from the mortgage sector.
Guy Cecala, the publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance: “Countrywide is following what a bunch of mortgage players are having to do. It is not just downsizing to reflect the decline in current mortgage volumes, but it is downsizing to reflect the new realities of the mortgage market.”
[So, NO JOB BACK, either!
That's ok. Didn't some lady once say, "Let 'em eat shit?"]
Countrywide had been riding high as one of the most aggressive lenders during the housing boom. Under Angelo R. Mozilo, its founder and chief executive, it became a $500 billion mortgage machine with nearly 900 offices across the nation.
Countrywide’s share price was up 561 percent over the 10 years ended last December. And its vast business, with prime as well as subprime borrowers, made it something of a proxy for the health of the American housing market.
Countrywide has been struggling. Defaults and delinquencies by homeowners are on the rise, especially for adjustable-rate loans to subprime borrowers, whose credit histories are blemished. Investor appetite for buying nonconventional mortgages in the secondary market, the foundation of Countrywide’s business, has all but dried up. Countrywide’s ability to remain a going concern was in question.
[Uh-oh!]
Countrywide has long hired and shed workers according to the boom-and-bust cycle of the housing market, but this was its first announcement of a major staff reduction.
[Like I said, a SHITCYCLE!]
Over the summer, Countrywide had been hiring loan officers and other employees from rivals like New Century Financial that closed their doors. Only in the past month did it announce that about 1,400 workers would lose their jobs. That figure is included in the 12,000 announced yesterday.
In its statement, Countrywide said that it expected new mortgages in the overall housing market to decline about 25 percent in 2008. And the company, the statement noted, will all but shut down its business writing subprime loans. Instead, it will move aggressively into conventional home loans that are easily digested by buyers like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the secondary market.
[Yeah, but the GOVERNMENT won't BAIL YOU OUT, home-owner dupe!
UNREAL, huh?
Yup, they will back up their buddies, but when it comes to Joe Scmoo, it is FUCK YOU!
Oh, and ALL THOSE BILLIONS WASTED and LOOTED by WAR PROFITEERS!!!
How about THAT, Amurkn shit-eater?
Doesn't it make you all warm and fuzzy to know that suckshit war profiteers are resting comfortably?
Given that only about half of Countrywide’s volume during the first half of 2007 came from issuing conventional mortgages, Mr. Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance said, Countrywide’s decline is likely to be even steeper than that of the sector as a whole:
“They are looking at closer to a 40 or 50 percent drop rather than a 25 percent drop. I would guess that 12,000 is not going to be enough. It is possible they would lay off 20,000 employees. You don’t need 60,000 employees with a plain-vanilla conforming mortgage operation.”
[More jobs that will NEVER COME BACK!
OK, Amurka, time to EAT UP?!?!]
