Sunday, July 20, 2008

Egypt's Next President

Why would the article appear if he isn't?

"Background operator may find Egypt's political limelight; Intelligence chief mentioned as possible president" by Jeffrey Fleishman, Los Angeles Times | July 18, 2008

CAIRO - Omar Suleiman, the head of Egypt's foreign intelligence service, has been at Mubarak's side through triumph and crisis, including a 1995 ambush on the president's motorcade that killed two security officers. It is this loyalty - to an unpopular president whose 26 years in power have been marked by emergency law - that may lift Suleiman even higher: He is often mentioned as a possible successor to the 80-year-old Mubarak.

Although he prefers tailored suits and smart ties, Suleiman has the military background that has defined Egyptian leaders since Gamal Nasser seized power in a 1952 coup. The gifted military strategist has years of diplomatic relations with the United States, Israel and the Arab world, and he's regarded as pragmatist likely to carry on Egypt's privatization and economic reform.

This balance is important to the West, especially Washington, which gives Egypt about $2 billion in military and economic aid.

That's $2 billion dollars you don't see, Americans, that goes to propping up a dictator.

Even though Egypt is a democracy, the army also plays a power-broker role.

That's OUR army, Americans. That's what the $2 billion goes for!!!!

"I believe the military has already decided on who will be the next president," said Diaa Rashwan, a political analyst with Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. He added that Suleiman "is one of the most likely candidates" because of his foreign policy resume and his ability to play down his military credentials and appear, in both dress and manner, more civilian.

"That will give the impression that the army is not directly ruling the country," Rashwan said.

Suleiman's profile has been rising. He was the chief negotiator in talks that led to the June truce between Israel and militant group Hamas in Gaza. That success lifted Egypt's credibility as a strategic actor in the region, an image weakened over the last decade by the country's economic and political problems along with the growing influence of Saudi Arabia. The agreement also protected Cairo from a repeat of the security crisis it faced in January when hundreds of thousands of Palestinians broke through the Gaza border and entered Egypt.

The possibility of a Suleiman candidacy slipped into the gossip and maneuverings of Egypt's political class several years ago. But some analysts suggest that the 73-year-old former infantryman turned spymaster may be considered too old, and his ties to Mubarak and Washington a detriment at a time many Egyptians are angered at and dismissive of both."

Like that matters to politicians at this point.